Labor and human capital
2026-04-25
12 minute read
16 sources
Reading labor markets: persistence indicators across 60 LMICs
Labor market shocks do not dissipate at the same speed everywhere. In a sample of 60 lower and middle income countries, the half-life of an unemployment shock ranges from under 9 months to more than 7 years. That single number reorders priorities for development programs and macro forecasts.
This brief applies AR(1) persistence and half-life methodology to three labor market series across 60 lower and middle income countries using World Bank WDI and ILO ILOSTAT data from 1991 through 2024. Average AR(1) coefficient on unemployment is 0.78, on total labor force participation is 0.91, and on female labor force participation is ...